A month after the executive order, AUGE surveys of its community reflect that 78% of micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) report sales declines. We spoke with business owners in the software and manufacturing sectors. The crisis is gradual, but when giants like Supermarket 23, Cubamax, Meliá Hotels, and Sherritt International reduce operations, the direction of the crisis is unmistakable.
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When the pandemic paralyzed the country in 2020, many entrepreneurs discovered they could reinvent themselves. Remote work, delivery services, business restructuring. It was tough, but there were ways forward.
Today, the question is different: what happens when what’s lacking isn’t a customer, but the very energy to operate?
To answer this, at AUGE we’ve spoken with business owners from various sectors and conducted our own research. Their voices paint a picture of what’s happening in this first month of total fuel shortages.
The numbers and realities we present come from surveys of our Telegram community and AUGE clients. They’re not meant to be an absolute truth, but rather a partial view. But when we see that players like Supermarket 23, Cubamax, Meliá Hotels, and Sherritt International are reducing operations, it’s clear we’re not far from the truth.
To understand why this crisis is more devastating than the pandemic, consider these four key differences:
- The nature of the problem: In 2020, we faced a health crisis with economic repercussions. Today, we face an energy crisis with existential repercussions. Energy is not just another input: it is the foundation upon which everything else rests.
- The duration: Back then, there was an estimated return date, a vaccine on the horizon. Today, the end is indefinite. Nobody knows when fuel will return, when the blackouts will normalize, or when the machines can be restarted.
- The impact: In 2020, the blow was asymmetrical. Some sectors suffered more, others less, and some even grew. This time, 96% of MSMEs are hurting. No sector is completely unscathed.
- Adaptability: During the pandemic, many businesses discovered remote work, delivery services, and online sales. Solutions existed. Although the adoption of photovoltaic energy is slowly spreading in the private and residential sectors, stability remains a distant prospect. Today, a factory without energy cannot produce, even with orders. Adaptation has physical limits.
The gradual crisis: one month later
On January 29, 2026, the Trump administration signed an executive order sanctioning the sale or delivery of fuel to Cuba. One month later, the country hasn’t completely ground to a halt. There’s still movement, still activity. But those who observe closely notice the changes: fewer cars, taxis are scarce, endless lines at gas stations, businesses are changing their hours, and companies are increasing their use of teleworking. Conversations among business owners always revolve around the same question: How much do you have left?
This gradual approach is treacherous. Fuel reserves are slowly dwindling. Inventories are being reduced without replenishment. Savings are being consumed by gasoline at astronomical prices. As one businessman in the manufacturing sector described it, he can still survive, but he doesn’t know for how much longer.
Supermarket 23, an online giant with multimillion-dollar operations and a solid infrastructure focused on product distribution in Cuba, limited its operations starting February 14. Cubamax, one of the leading travel and shipping agencies that distributes a variety of goods and remittances from the US to the country, adopted similar measures. Meliá Hotels, for its part, has suspended operations at 3 of its 35 properties on the island, and Sherritt International’s operations are compromised by the same fuel shortage.
When these companies reduce operations, the direction of the crisis is unmistakable. It’s not a crisis that only affects the vulnerable: it’s systemic, impacting everyone from micro-enterprises to transnational corporations.
What the numbers say: the impact on sales during January 2026
An accounting services company for micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises shared its analysis: comparing January 2026 with January 2025, 58 % of its clients had lower sales. The remaining 42 % reported higher sales.
For our part, we asked the business owners who are members of our Telegram channel how the crisis had impacted their sales during January. Sixty-three companies participated:
78% of MSME in our community are already reporting a drop in sales during the first month of the crisis. It’s a limited sample, but consistent with what’s happening among larger players.
Two sectors, two realities, two rates of decline
The founder of a software company in Havana explained that the crisis hasn’t impacted them as much. Their clients are abroad, and they invoice in foreign currency. A year ago, they installed solar panels at their office. Their programmers can work from home. They don’t depend on fuel to move goods. But he clarified that his programmers live in Cuba, and if they don’t have electricity at home or a good internet connection, they can’t work.
The owner of a manufacturing company told us about a different reality. For the past three months, power outages have paralyzed them. There are key products they haven’t been able to manufacture. However, their sales are being maintained thanks to accumulated inventory. He estimates that with current inventory, he can hold out for another three months. But when that runs out, he’ll have nothing left to sell. It’s like living off your savings: you know they’re going to run out, but in the meantime, everything looks normal.
The 5 deepest wounds of the energy crisis
- Wound 1: Zero income
When there’s no energy, there’s no production. When there’s no production, there are no sales. The chain is simple and brutal. 78 % of our community is already reporting declines. Some industries are maintaining revenue thanks to inventories, but it’s an illusion: when those run out, there will be nothing left to sell.
- Wound 2: What was produced is lost
Products that require refrigeration spoil. Perishable raw materials expire.
- Wound 3: Total decapitalization
The 2025 Business Climate Study revealed that 60 % of micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises had invested in solar panels or generators. For them, survival is possible, albeit at a high cost. The remaining 40 % face a stark choice: buy fuel on the black market at exorbitant prices and in ever-decreasing quantities, or shut down.
- Wound 4: Zero raw materials
Without fuel, suppliers can’t transport goods. Supply chains break down. First, less arrives, then it arrives late, then it doesn’t arrive at all. The Cubamax and Supermarket 23 cases demonstrate that the problem is no longer exclusive to small businesses.
- Wound 5: Fixed costs with no return date
The rent, the security guard, the taxes. All those bills keep coming even though the business isn’t generating revenue. Micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises with high fixed costs are especially hard hit.
The illusion of stable sales
What the manufacturing entrepreneur told us and what the accounting firm’s analysis revealed point to a layer of the crisis that isn’t visible in the superficial statistics: some companies are maintaining their sales thanks to inventory, but when that inventory runs out, they’ll have nothing left to sell. When that inventory is depleted—in three months, for example—the drop could be abrupt and massive. Then, the business crisis will show its true face.
Conclusion: Why this crisis is more lethal
In 2020, the wounds were painful, but there were remedies: remote work, delivery, restructuring, and the expectation of a vaccine. In 2026, the wounds are deeper because there’s no substitute for energy—no app can replace a kilowatt—and adaptation has physical limits. Resources are also depleted after five years of accumulated crises, and the outlook is uncertain because no one knows when or how this crisis will be resolved.
There are companies that are selling today but no longer producing, and their income is an illusion that will vanish when inventories run out. 78 % of our community is already feeling the impact, and this is only the first month. Even large companies are falling: Supermarket 23, Cubamax, Meliá, and Sherritt are adjusting operations, and when they do, the magnitude of the crisis ceases to be a hypothesis.
The crisis is gradual, and that’s what makes it deceptive: not seeing all the symptoms clearly today doesn’t mean they won’t appear tomorrow. In the end, 96 % of micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises, as we demonstrated in our previous report, are suffering. No sector is completely isolated.
In the next article we will explore the direct import of fuel.
